As we approach the end of the fiscal year, investors should be focusing on the Treasury General Account (TGA) as one factor of many that may impact global liquidity, and in turn, market performance in the coming two quarters. The TGA, essentially the U.S. Treasury’s checking account at the Federal Reserve, plays a crucial role in managing the government’s cash flow and has significant impacts on financial markets. As we progress into the year, a potential increase in the TGA balance by the Treasury in preparation for a contentious budget negotiation in Congress could constrict global liquidity, affecting market performance.
The Treasury General Account and Its Role
The TGA is used by the Treasury to hold cash to fund government operations. When the TGA balance is high, it means the Treasury is holding more cash than it is spending. This cash accumulation can occur due to higher-than-expected tax receipts or issuance of Treasury securities. Conversely, when the Treasury spends this cash, it injects liquidity into the financial system. Therefore, the TGA balance is a significant determinant of liquidity in global financial markets.
Potential Constraints on Global Liquidity
Heading into September, the Treasury might aim to increase the TGA balance as a buffer against potential fiscal uncertainties. This action is driven by the anticipation of a possible showdown in Congress over the next fiscal year’s budget. If lawmakers struggle to reach an agreement, the Treasury would need sufficient cash to continue operations without new borrowing authority, especially if a government shutdown looms.
Increasing the TGA balance requires the Treasury to issue more securities and collect more cash from the market, effectively pulling liquidity out of the financial system. This reduction in liquidity can have ripple effects globally, as less cash in the system can lead to tighter financial conditions, higher interest rates, and reduced risk appetite among investors.
Impact on the Stock Market
Since the 3rd quarter of 2023, investors have been riding high on an increase in global liquidity, but investors should keep a close watch on developments with respect to the TGA, as a significant increase in the TGA balance could lead to a contraction in global liquidity. Historical precedents show that such contractions can result in stock market corrections. When liquidity is constrained, equity valuations often face downward pressure due to higher discount rates and a flight to safety by investors.
However, any potential correction induced by TGA-related liquidity constraints is likely to be brief. The U.S. is expected to continue running large pro-cyclical fiscal deficits, injecting substantial liquidity back into the economy. Furthermore, U.S. consumers, buoyed by substantial bank deposits and largely insulated from high-interest rates, are likely to sustain economic activity, providing a buffer against prolonged market downturns.
Strategic Investment Approaches
In the face of these dynamics, investors should consider “buying the dip” during any market corrections, but with a strategic focus. Value stocks and commodities are poised to perform well in the medium to long term, especially in an inflationary environment driven by continued deficit spending and robust consumer demand.
Value stocks, which tend to be less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, offer more stable returns in volatile markets. Commodities, on the other hand, provide a hedge against inflation and benefit from increased fiscal spending on infrastructure and other capital-intensive projects.
Broader Determinants of Global Liquidity
While the TGA is a significant determinant of global liquidity, it is essential to remember that other factors also play crucial roles. Interest rates, inflation, credit availability, and broader economic conditions all impact global liquidity. Therefore, while monitoring the TGA is important, it should be considered within the broader context of these other variables. However, if one considers interest rates, they must also consider that the market is likely already pricing in future cuts from the Federal Reserve.
Conclusion
The potential increase in the TGA balance by the Treasury as a precautionary measure against fiscal uncertainty could lead to a temporary contraction in global liquidity. This is a critical factor for investors to monitor, as it could choke liquidity and contribute to stock market volatility in the coming quarters. Nonetheless, the overall macroeconomic environment, characterized by large fiscal deficits and resilient consumer spending, suggests that any market corrections will be short-lived. Investors should look for opportunities to invest in value stocks and commodities, which are well-positioned to thrive in an inflationary setting.
For those seeking professional management of their portfolios, consulting with a Euro Pacific Asset Management Advisor can provide strategic insights and tailored investment approaches to navigate these complex market dynamics.
